It is widely expected that a General Election will be called for May 6.
With the political polls revealing a narrowing gap between the main parties, it is clear a hung parliament is a possibility, making the coming general election the most exciting in many years.
And, If after all the votes are cast we find ourselves faced with a hung parliament – the first this century – it will prove advantageous to MPs outside the big three national parties.
For the Conservatives to obtain an overall majority on May 6, they will need a swing of around seven percent or more, like the enormous 10 percent swing Tony Blair achieved in 1997 taking Labour into power.
Anything less than seven percent is likely to lead to a hung parliament, leaving Reg Empey and his Ulster Unionist Party locked into their electoral deal with the Tories.
Having sold their votes, they would be unable to maximise the advantage of any electoral gains. And if returned, Lady Sylvia Hermon MP, having declared her opposition to the Tories, would beat a path to the Labour benches.
However, it is certain that any swing to the Tories on the mainland would have to be gigantic by comparison, to unseat any of the sitting Northern Ireland MPs.
Clearly in a hung parliament the Northern Ireland MPs (with the exception of the UUP), will be in a strong position, with potentially the power to make or break the government.
As the election date looms the Liberal Democrats will come under pressure to throw their support behind one of the other political groupings. Would such a pre-election statement in favour of Labour play well with Lib Dem voters?
And if they don’t declare but then enter a coalition, what would be the party political fall-out?
In the House of Commons a tight numerical situation may not cause Gordon Brown to stand down, at least not in the early days.
The political pact making that will follow a close election could take days, after which it will be for the politicians to name the Prime Minister, taking the name to the Queen for approval.
The duty and undertaking of Her Majesty is to appoint the politician able to secure support within Parliament.
The local MPs - either alone or in agreement with the Welsh and Scottish MPs, from outside the Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats - could become king makers, agreeing who is to be PM.
If this situation arises, the leverage available could be hugely advantageous to DUP MPs.
Sinn Fein MPs don’t take their seats in parliament so they will not be in a position of influence and the SDLP are already a sister party of Labour, therefore already committed.
It is the DUP MPs alone who will have the maximum influence. There can be many policy reasons for a non-alignment strategy. However, in a hung parliament scenario it is good political common sense for the DUP not to have aligned with any national party.
